So how important is politics for water?

Over the last 7 or so blogs, we've looked at a series of issues, linked to case studies in different regions of Africa. In many of the blogs, politics and the leaders in the regions and situations discussed have been at the centre of the story.

But just how important is politics in relation to water management?

Credits: Getty 

Global Change

Hydropolitics is significant for a number of reasons, but the most important argument is not based so much within past case studies, but in the future of the African continent. Africa, particularly the sub-saharan (SS) region, is facing a bleak outlook from IPCC scenarios of climate change. Furthermore, the interaction of projected climate change with the wider context of global change is going to make the management of water supplies and frameworks of the next 30 years for water management crucial to the region.

Global change refers to the interaction of climatic and socioeconomic factors in shaping the global profile of the future (Boyle and Boyle 1993). As population in Africa continues to increase, the demands for food, water and socioeconomic development continue to rise, interacting with climatic changes which are likely to increase weather intensity and seasonality.

'The global change cycle' Credits: Active Geography

So what does this mean for the continent?

Increasing seasonality and unpredictable rainfall patterns would harm crop productivity in much of SS Africa, meaning a struggle to meet the increasing food demands of increasing population sizes. Furthermore, with lower domestic output of crops economies will become increasingly reliant upon imports to meet food demands (Calzadilla et. al 2013). A more costly option, this feeds into the second factor of socio-economic growth, reducing available capital for development initiatives and with secondary and tertiary economies still underdeveloped within many of the poorest regions, likely to lead to economic deficit (Noman 2012). As we have seen in the Lake Chad blog, poor national governments do not mix well with climatic change and increasing populations for water management. However, this scenario somewhat assumes passive leadership, as well as a wide range of potential scenarios from climatic and global change, but needless to say a worst case scenario could be devastating for large parts of sub-saharan Africa.

Population growth scenarios for Africa (Credits: World Economic Forum 2016)

How can Africa prevent this?

This is a widely debated topic from climatic (Mahe et al. 2013, Ambrosino 2011) and development perspectives (Mayers 2009, Devit and Tol 2012). Within climatic studies, much of the focus is upon the impacts of climatic change upon agriculture, and how mitigating this through strategies such as low carbon energy and improved irrigation may help to mitigate risks of food crises arising from drought periods. Within development literature there is a partial focus upon the scenarios in which development may be harmed and methods of development planning to continue socioeconomic growth even in the face of more extreme conditions.

As we have found previously, water is a vital element of development, and of all Africa's resources is arguably the highest priority for management. If Klare's (2001) water war theory is accurate, then hydro-diplomacy could become the most important geopolitical issue of the 21st century. Furthermore, it is not just conflict which political management can avoid. As we have found across nearly all case studies, even the most desperate hydrological conditions can be eased if not averted through effective management.

Credits: IPCC 2010

If enough capital is invested in long term water infrastructure (such as efficient crop irrigation and water stores in Shimeles et al (2013)'s scenario), then governments can reduce their reliance upon crop imports in the future and ease geopolitical tension surrounding transboundary water sources.

Furthermore, as Africa becomes increasingly urbanised, funding for improving water recycling and efficient urban water networks will be crucial (Alvar et al 2012). As proven in the Cape Town drought of 2018, many African cities are extremely inefficient and increasing rates of water recycling can have dramatic influences upon water conservation and usage. A common theme in all of our case studies has been the need for long term, sustainable planning, and politics is crucial to the engagement of African governments with the IGOs and NGOs forecasting future changes and solutions.

As well as political top down management, hydro politics and global change will also require an effort of the commons to alter water use practice in many African cities and regions. As we discovered in the Cape Town case study, political water management comes from many different stakeholder actions, and whilst the long term scope of global change is a different crisis to the drought study, the actions required are likely to be similar.

What are the key lessons of this blog? 

From each blog and case study we have learnt a pattern of political management, crisis cause and crisis aversion. With the future of hydropolitics looking so volatile, what could be applied to the future political management of Africa's water? 

• The power of the commons: across all blogs we have seen the interactions (both positive and negative) of groups of humans with water supplies. Harnessing attitudes and actions with water in both rural and urban settings has been key to averting several crisis, from Cape Town's water crisis to the protests of Lagos for water equality. 

• The balance of private and public ownership: as we found in the blog Yes or No? water management in Africa often requires a delicate balance of private capital injection with adequate political governance and representation for resident stakeholders. The issue or solution are not homogenous and attempts to polarise ownership either way is likely to cause conflict. 

• Long term management as the key to success: it may not always be politically popular, but long term planning to conserve water use through policy, build infrastructure and locate new sources as well as setting aside budgets for emergency droughts was shown in the Cape Town blog to be crucial for effective political management of water resources. 

• Development is both an effect and affector of water management: the Lake Chad blog went some way to showing the causal and resultant nature of development and water supply. Without the capital to invest in water infrastructure and mitigation of drastic climate change (fuelled by declining regional economic output) the region has descended into socioeconomic decline and a self enforcing cycle. This study showed the clear relationship between water related poverty and our next point, water conflict. 

• Water conflict is real, and in the future it may not be just in boardrooms: the Nile blog showed how water politics over transboundary sources has been politically tense on an international scale ever since decolonisation. However, without careful management regional tension can see the rise of localised violence or as in the case of Lake Chad, extremist terrorism.